2:30 A.M. ET:   Certain trends, possibly tentative ones, seem to be emerging as the war in Ukraine heats up. 

1.  We're losing.  There is a kind of resignation in the comments of knowledgeable people.  I've never seen it quite this way before.  The usual liberal cheering section in the press corps has essentially disappeared.  We are failing, Putin is playing President Biden like a second-hand violin.  Russian troops are advancing into Ukraine, yet no one seems willing to intervene to stop them.  We see a major, catastrophic defeat ahead.

2.  Biden's new sanctions are a joke.  I heard not one commentator who expressed any enthusiasm for them.  Not strong enough.  Not targeting Putin himself.  No confidence in Biden doing anything more effective.

3.  It could have been prevented.  Biden's ridiculous energy policies have taken this country from energy independence to dependence on foreign oil, some of that from Russia, if you can believe that!  His refusal to reverse those policies means Europe will still be buying energy from Russia rather than us, a catastrophic situation, and we may still need Russian oil and gas.  The feeling of humiliation is everywhere in the commentary.

4.  China is watching, and laughing.  China, our main adversary, is having the best of times.  Since Biden took office China has watched America humble itself, first by being chased out of Afghanistan after years of struggle, now by standing by like a dumb fool as a friendly nation is devoured by an economically weak Russia.  If China decided to take Taiwan, what could we actually do?

5. Biden is isolated.  Who wants to go near him?  The expected loss of Ukraine could be a death blow to the Democratic Party.  Its standard bearer, the president, is fading.  Its vice president has disappeared again.   There are rumors she's on a milk carton in Poland.  What Dem candidate would want either of those two to campaign for him or her?  I haven't heard clear talk about a new political party to replace the Dems, but I think we're getting close.  We are eight months away from the midterms.  What does the Democratic Party have for an argument?

We are an unhappy nation.  Ukraine reminds us of our weakness, and our mediocre government officials.  Coming after all the confusion about the pandemic, we didn't need this. We're looking for a psychological break, and we aren't finding one. 

3:05 P.M. ET:  President Biden spoke to the nation today.  At least that's what he tried to do.  The speech, in the midst of an international crisis, should have been delivered in the evening, from the Oval Office.  That's what real presidents do.  Americans who work can't watch an afternoon speech.

Biden's speech, perhaps the most important of his life, was widely anticipated.  A few days ago he announced a first set of sanctions – Sanctions Lite – on Russia for menacing Ukraine.  Most observers thought them laughably mild.  Greater toughness was expected today. 

Well, the president, as usual, fell below expectations.  He said all the right things about how bad Vladimir Putin is, what a raw, rude fellow he'd become.  But then the president rattled off, from a teleprompter, a pretty vague list of sanctions, admitting later that they would take some time to have effect.  But he assured us that he'd revisit them if they didn't work within a month.

Yawn.

Are we serious here?  The people of Ukraine are facing Russian tanks right now, not a month from now.  A month from now might well see the Russian flag flying all over Ukraine. 

Not a great performance from the president.  Most commentators expressed a kind of reserved dismay.  Where was the hammer?  Where were the hard blows?   The speech was all belly and no spine.  Tough words mean nothing unless they're accompanied by chilling actions.

Mr. Biden needed a home run, not a fly-ball single to left.

More on this later.

February 24, 2022